Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 12, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional weather forecasts issued by meteorologists or the National Weather Service. While analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction through price discovery. This market allows you to compare consensus pricing against published forecasts closer to the event date. Discrepancies between the two can signal where traders see gaps in conventional predictions or where new data has shifted expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as more traders participate, improving liquidity. Your position's value updates in real time as the market reprices based on new trades and information.

This market resolves around Jun 13, 2026, after June 12, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Washington DC that day is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verified data from credible public sources reporting the actual low temperature. Once the event is observable and finalized, the market settles to reflect the correct outcome. Traders holding positions aligned with the final result receive their payouts accordingly.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and updated climate models closer to June 2026 could significantly move this market. Unexpected atmospheric conditions, polar vortex activity, or heat dome formation would influence trader expectations. Real-time weather alerts and official forecast updates from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and broader climate trends may prompt traders to adjust positions. As the event date approaches, intraday weather developments and final model consensus typically drive the most volatile price swings.