Lowest temperature in Washington DC on Jun 11, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader consensus and often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate data, and seasonal patterns. Unlike traditional weather analyst forecasts, which rely on numerical models and expert judgment, prediction markets aggregate distributed information through price discovery. Traders betting on specific temperature ranges embed their expectations into market odds. Comparing Kalshi odds to National Weather Service or other meteorological forecasts can reveal where the market diverges from official predictions, potentially highlighting underpriced or overpriced temperature scenarios based on emerging weather patterns.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the probability traders assign to specific minimum temperature thresholds for June 11 in Washington DC. Prices move between 0 and 100 cents as traders buy and sell contracts, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. The market incorporates real-time weather data, seasonal June temperatures in DC, and trader positioning. As the event date approaches, price volatility may increase if weather forecasts shift or new meteorological information emerges, allowing traders to adjust positions based on updated atmospheric conditions.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the lowest temperature for June 11, 2026 in Washington DC has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official temperature data from a designated meteorological source, typically the National Weather Service or similar authoritative weather station serving the DC area. The actual minimum temperature reading for that calendar day determines which outcome contract holders receive payment. Traders should monitor weather station updates and official forecasts leading up to and through June 11 to understand how conditions may affect the final recorded low.

Several factors could shift odds on Kalshi before resolution. Major weather pattern changes, such as the arrival of cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or tropical moisture, would move market prices significantly. Updated extended forecasts from meteorological models in the weeks and days before June 11 will influence trader positioning. Seasonal anomalies, such as unusual heat or cold waves affecting the East Coast, could reprrice temperature expectations. Real-time forecast updates, atmospheric pressure shifts, and any unusual climate events in late May or early June 2026 will drive trading activity and adjust market odds as new information becomes available.