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Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 7?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 7?

Volume:
$16,654

17°C

 - Polymarket

17°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 7, 2026

Closed: Jun 7, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

17°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,886
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$871
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs about Tokyo's minimum temperature on June 7, often incorporating meteorological data and seasonal patterns faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While weather analysts typically publish point estimates or ranges based on climate models, prediction markets price in uncertainty and tail risks through continuous trading. The market's current odds suggest a specific probability distribution that may diverge from published forecasts depending on recent weather developments, model updates, and trader positioning. Direct comparison requires accessing current meteorological authority statements and analyst consensus for the same date.

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, after the trading day concludes on June 7. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Tokyo on that calendar date. The outcome hinges on whether the minimum temperature falls at or below the specified threshold (11°C) or exceeds it. Official meteorological data from Japan's weather authority or recognized climate monitoring service will be used to settle the contract. Traders should monitor weather forecasts and real-time temperature reports as the date approaches to assess the likelihood of the outcome.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 7. Updated seasonal weather forecasts, particularly from Japan Meteorological Agency models, often trigger repricing as traders incorporate new data. Cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or anomalous atmospheric patterns in East Asia could lower expected temperatures and increase the probability of the 11°C-or-below outcome. Historical temperature records for early June in Tokyo provide a baseline; significant deviations from seasonal norms may prompt trading activity. Additionally, global climate indices, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and real-time temperature trends in the weeks leading up to June 7 will influence trader positioning and market prices.