Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 6?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 6 is priced as a set of outcome shares, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell these shares, and the current market price of each outcome reflects its implied probability. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, or climate models become available, prices adjust in real time. The spread between bid and ask prices indicates liquidity and trader confidence in that particular outcome.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026, after June 6, 2026 concludes. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Tokyo on that date. The outcome is typically verified against data from Japan's national meteorological authority or a designated reference source specified in the market terms. Once the official temperature is confirmed, the winning outcome shares are paid out at full value, and all other shares expire worthless. This ensures a clear, objective settlement based on real-world weather data.

Several factors can shift market odds for Tokyo's June 6 low temperature. Updated seasonal forecasts, atmospheric pressure systems, and large-scale weather patterns like monsoon onset timing will influence trader expectations. El Niño or La Niña conditions, volcanic activity, or unusual solar activity can alter regional climate anomalies. Real-time weather model runs released in the days leading up to June 6 will be critical catalysts. Additionally, historical temperature records, urban heat island effects, and any unusual meteorological events in East Asia may prompt traders to reprice their positions as the event date approaches.