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Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 5?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 5?

Volume:
$19,879

16°C

 - Polymarket

16°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 5, 2026

Closed: Jun 5, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

16°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,532
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,599
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,863
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,398
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,080
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$955
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 5 is priced as a set of outcome shares, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell these shares, and the market price of each outcome reflects its implied probability. As June 5 approaches, prices adjust based on new weather data, seasonal patterns, and trader positioning. The cost to buy a share in any outcome directly represents the market's confidence in that temperature occurring.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 5 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from a designated weather source, typically the Japan Meteorological Agency or equivalent authoritative weather station in Tokyo. The actual minimum temperature recorded on that date settles the market, with the corresponding outcome share paying out in full and all other shares expiring worthless. Traders should confirm the exact data source and measurement methodology specified in the market terms.

Several factors can shift odds for Tokyo's lowest temperature on June 5. Major weather system developments, such as approaching fronts, typhoons, or high-pressure ridges, will trigger significant repricing as meteorological models update. Seasonal climate patterns and historical June temperature data also influence trader expectations. Real-time atmospheric pressure, humidity, and wind patterns reported closer to the date will refine forecasts. Additionally, any revisions to long-range weather outlooks or anomalous global climate signals may move the market as traders reassess the probability of warmer or cooler outcomes.