Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 3?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 3 is priced through outcome shares that traders can buy or sell. Each temperature range or threshold is represented as a separate contract, and the price of each share reflects the market's implied probability. As traders update their positions based on weather forecasts, seasonal patterns, and real-time data, prices adjust dynamically. The current odds show which temperature outcomes the market considers most likely, with higher prices indicating greater perceived probability of that outcome occurring.

The Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 3 market resolves on Jun 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual minimum temperature recorded in Tokyo on that date. Official meteorological data from Japan's weather authority or a designated reference source establishes which outcome bracket the final temperature falls into. Once the market closes and the reference data is confirmed, traders' positions are settled according to the outcome that occurred. The resolution process is objective and based on verifiable temperature measurements from the specified location and timeframe.

Several factors could shift odds for Tokyo's lowest temperature on June 3. Updated seasonal weather forecasts and long-range models from meteorological agencies will influence trader expectations. Major weather systems, such as approaching fronts or unusual atmospheric patterns, can alter the probability of cooler or warmer conditions. Historical temperature data and climate anomalies for early June in Tokyo provide context. Real-time atmospheric pressure, humidity, and wind patterns closer to the date will refine predictions. Additionally, any significant climate or weather news affecting Japan's region could prompt traders to adjust their positions and market prices.