TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 25?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 25?

Volume:
$21,556

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$432
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$349
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tokyo temperature market dashboard displays real-time odds and trading activity for the lowest temperature forecast in Tokyo on June 25. Traders can monitor current pricing, 24-hour volume of $15,394, and historical price movements to understand how market sentiment is shifting. The dashboard aggregates all bids and offers on this contract, showing the collective prediction of the market at any given moment. Total liquidity across this market stands at $18,556, reflecting sustained trader interest in the outcome.

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and financial incentives. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, traders here are betting real capital on the lowest temperature outcome. This market's odds reflect what participants believe will actually occur, sometimes revealing gaps between consensus forecasts and market-implied probabilities. Comparing the two can highlight where expert opinion and market sentiment align or diverge on June 25's conditions.

This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, once June 25 has passed and the lowest temperature in Tokyo can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing actual recorded temperatures against the specified thresholds, with results confirmed through credible public reporting. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once verification is complete. Until that point, prices will continue to fluctuate as new weather data and forecasts influence trader expectations.

Weather model updates and seasonal pattern shifts are primary catalysts that could shift prices significantly. Major atmospheric systems, tropical activity, or unexpected pressure changes in the weeks leading up to June 25 would likely trigger repricing. Real-time temperature readings as the date approaches will narrow uncertainty and drive late trading. Additionally, any revisions to long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust bids accordingly.