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Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 12?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 12?

Volume:
$16,973

19°C

 - Polymarket

19°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

19°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,993
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,676
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,527
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader expectations, which often differ from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts issue point estimates or ranges based on atmospheric models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. The market odds may lead or lag official forecasts depending on data availability and trader conviction. Comparing Polymarket probabilities to Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks or international weather models can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than institutional forecasters.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the close of June 12 in Tokyo. Resolution is determined by the verified lowest temperature recorded in Tokyo on that calendar day. Official meteorological data sources provide the authoritative measurement used to settle all outcome contracts. Traders should monitor weather conditions throughout June 12 and be aware that final resolution may take a short time after market end date to allow for data confirmation and any necessary dispute resolution processes.

Major signals include updated seasonal climate forecasts, atmospheric pressure systems approaching Japan, and historical temperature patterns for early June in Tokyo. Tropical weather systems or monsoon activity could significantly lower temperatures, while high-pressure ridges might elevate them. Real-time weather model updates from major forecasting centers will drive trader repositioning. Additionally, any anomalous climate events or shifts in the jet stream could alter expectations. As June 12 approaches, daily weather forecasts become increasingly precise, typically causing sharper price movements as uncertainty narrows and traders refine their probability estimates.