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Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?

Volume:
$23,297

18°C

 - Polymarket

18°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

18°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$739
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader expectations, which often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate patterns, and seasonal trends for early June in Tokyo. Traditional weather analysts typically issue deterministic point forecasts or ranges based on atmospheric models. Market odds tend to be more dynamic and probabilistic, updating continuously as new data arrives. Comparing the market's implied temperature distribution to official Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks can reveal whether traders are pricing in warmer or cooler conditions than institutional forecasters expect.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official recorded lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 11, typically sourced from Japan's national weather authority or equivalent meteorological data provider. The exact temperature reading on that date settles all positions, with outcomes determined by whether the actual low matches the specified threshold or range encoded in the contract. Traders should monitor official weather station reports as the date approaches to assess resolution likelihood.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems could significantly move odds. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, and anomalous jet stream positioning all influence early June temperatures in Tokyo. Real-time weather model updates from major meteorological centers typically drive short-term repricing. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies and climate indices released closer to June 11 may prompt traders to adjust positions. Seasonal transition dynamics and any unusual solar or volcanic activity could also influence market expectations.