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Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Volume:
$26,045

23°C

 - Polymarket

23°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

23°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,165
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,965
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,832
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,372
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$677
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tokyo July 9 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the lowest temperature expected in Tokyo on July 9, 2026. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. This market aggregates buy and sell orders from participants predicting whether the day's low will fall within specific temperature ranges, with each outcome priced according to collective trader conviction.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader expectations and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data to project temperatures, this market incorporates trader judgment, risk appetite, and information asymmetries. Comparing the implied probability from market prices to published forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency or other official sources can reveal whether traders are pricing in tail risks or consensus outcomes differently. Such gaps sometimes signal where market participants see value relative to expert opinion.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker or order-book mechanism, where each temperature outcome is represented as a separate contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the implied probability that the lowest temperature will fall within that range, with contracts summing to 100 cents if all outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Traders buy contracts they believe are underpriced and sell those they view as overpriced, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating market liquidity and confidence.

This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once July 9, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Tokyo that day is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources, such as official weather station data or Japan Meteorological Agency records. Once the actual low temperature is established and falls within one of the predefined ranges, the corresponding contract is marked correct, and traders holding winning positions receive their payout.

Several factors may shift odds in this market before resolution. Updated seasonal forecasts, El Niño or La Niña patterns, and atmospheric pressure systems affecting East Asia could prompt traders to reassess temperature probabilities. Major weather alerts or typhoon warnings in early July would likely trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for July 9 in Tokyo and real-time weather model updates in the days leading up to the event typically drive trading volume and price adjustments as new information becomes available.