Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 31?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the lowest temperature outcome is priced using an automated market maker model where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges or exact values. The price of each share reflects the collective assessment of all market participants. As new information emerges—such as updated seasonal forecasts or atmospheric patterns—traders adjust their positions, moving prices to reflect changing probabilities of different low-temperature scenarios on May 31 in Shanghai.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026. The outcome is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Shanghai on May 31, as reported by authoritative meteorological sources. Resolution occurs after the calendar day concludes and verified temperature data becomes available. The specific temperature reading—whether it falls into a predicted range or matches an exact value—settles all positions in the market based on the predetermined outcome criteria established at market creation.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to monsoon onset timing, tropical cyclone activity, or cold fronts moving into East Asia, could significantly move odds. Updated seasonal climate forecasts from meteorological agencies may reveal stronger or weaker cooling trends. Real-time atmospheric data, jet stream positioning, and sea surface temperature anomalies in surrounding regions all influence Shanghai's May 31 low. Additionally, as the event date approaches, actual May weather observations will anchor expectations more firmly, reducing uncertainty and sharpening market pricing toward the most probable outcome.