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Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 8?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 8?

Volume:
$51,123

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,869
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,694
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,803
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,598
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,353
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,818
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,348
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Shanghai July 8 temperature market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for the lowest temperature expected in Shanghai on July 8. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, and the dashboard reflects current market prices, 24-hour trading volume, and cumulative liquidity across all outcome brackets. This live data helps participants monitor how market sentiment shifts as new weather forecasts emerge and the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, risk premiums, and collective intelligence beyond a single model. While weather agencies publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in tail risks or expressing greater confidence than meteorologists do.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker, where each temperature bracket has its own contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective assessment of participants' willingness to stake capital on that range. As new information arrives—updated weather models, seasonal patterns, or real-time atmospheric conditions—traders adjust their positions, moving prices to reflect changing probabilities of each temperature outcome.

This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once July 8 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Shanghai can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual low temperature against the predefined brackets offered in the market. Resolution occurs after credible public reporting confirms the final temperature reading, allowing the platform to settle all winning and losing positions accordingly.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can significantly move prices in this market. Tropical cyclones, monsoon intensity changes, or unexpected cold fronts would trigger rapid repricing as traders reassess probabilities. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies for early July in Shanghai, shifts in El Niño conditions, and official meteorological alerts all serve as key catalysts that influence trader positioning and market volatility leading up to the resolution date.