TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Kalshi:

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Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 29?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 29?

Volume:
$29,412

16°C

 - Polymarket

16°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 29, 2026

Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

16°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,310
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

17°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,077
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or higher

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,066
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Seoul's lowest temperature will reach exactly 16°C on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the 16°C outcome is priced at 97.2%, while the 15°C outcome stands at 2.1%. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground, using readings from Incheon International Airport Station. Watch the actual low temperature recorded on May 29, 2026, as that date approaches, since the market resolves based on the precise minimum temperature observed that day.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the lowest temperature in Seoul on May 29 on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $15,669. The event has generated total volume of $29,412, reflecting trader interest in Seoul's May weather conditions. Users can monitor how odds shift as new information emerges and track liquidity across temperature outcome brackets leading up to resolution.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus on Seoul's lowest temperature for May 29, often incorporating meteorological data faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While weather analysts rely on historical climate patterns and seasonal models, prediction markets aggregate diverse participant expectations and financial incentives. The current market pricing suggests traders are weighing spring weather volatility in Seoul. Comparing market odds to official meteorological agency forecasts and seasonal climate reports can reveal whether traders are pricing in above or below typical May temperatures for the region.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Seoul on May 29 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date. Traders should monitor Seoul meteorological records and official weather station reports as the event date approaches. The specific temperature threshold or outcome bracket that resolves will depend on the final recorded low for May 29 in Seoul. Early resolution is unlikely unless the event is cancelled or data becomes unavailable.

Several factors could shift odds for Seoul's May 29 low temperature. Updated seasonal weather forecasts and long-range meteorological models will influence trader expectations as May approaches. Cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or unusual atmospheric patterns over East Asia could trigger significant repricing. Historical May temperature data and climate anomalies may prompt recalibration. Real-time weather updates in late May will drive final price movements. Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts, regional climate reports, and any unusual weather events that could affect Seoul's spring temperatures during the prediction window.