TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Seoul's lowest temperature will reach exactly 16°C on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the 16°C outcome is priced at 97.2%, while the 15°C outcome stands at 2.1%. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground, using readings from Incheon International Airport Station. Watch the actual low temperature recorded on May 29, 2026, as that date approaches, since the market resolves based on the precise minimum temperature observed that day.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus on Seoul's lowest temperature for May 29, often incorporating meteorological data faster than traditional analyst forecasts. While weather analysts rely on historical climate patterns and seasonal models, prediction markets aggregate diverse participant expectations and financial incentives. The current market pricing suggests traders are weighing spring weather volatility in Seoul. Comparing market odds to official meteorological agency forecasts and seasonal climate reports can reveal whether traders are pricing in above or below typical May temperatures for the region.
The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Seoul on May 29 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date. Traders should monitor Seoul meteorological records and official weather station reports as the event date approaches. The specific temperature threshold or outcome bracket that resolves will depend on the final recorded low for May 29 in Seoul. Early resolution is unlikely unless the event is cancelled or data becomes unavailable.
Several factors could shift odds for Seoul's May 29 low temperature. Updated seasonal weather forecasts and long-range meteorological models will influence trader expectations as May approaches. Cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or unusual atmospheric patterns over East Asia could trigger significant repricing. Historical May temperature data and climate anomalies may prompt recalibration. Real-time weather updates in late May will drive final price movements. Traders should monitor Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts, regional climate reports, and any unusual weather events that could affect Seoul's spring temperatures during the prediction window.