Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time information, trader conviction, and financial incentives absent from standard weather models. While meteorologists publish deterministic or probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the beliefs of traders who profit only if their prediction is correct. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts from Korea Meteorological Administration or regional weather services can reveal where the market is pricing in additional uncertainty or confidence. This divergence frequently highlights aspects of the forecast that analysts consider less certain than their headline numbers suggest.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares that represent different temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out based on the verified result, and the current market price reflects the probability that traders collectively assign to each outcome. Liquidity pools or order books determine how much it costs to move the odds in either direction. As new weather data arrives or forecasts shift, traders adjust their positions, causing prices to fluctuate in real time and revealing updated consensus on the likely low temperature for that day.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once June 17 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul that day is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual meteorological data reported by official weather monitoring stations in Seoul. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature range receive their payout, while incorrect predictions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a day after the event, once the final temperature reading is confirmed and published by recognized weather authorities.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or tropical storm activity could significantly move this market. Real-time atmospheric data releases, changes in jet stream positioning, or unexpected cold or warm air masses moving into the Korean peninsula would prompt traders to reassess their positions. News of volcanic activity, solar cycles, or anomalous ocean temperatures affecting regional climate could also trigger repricing. As June 17 approaches, hourly weather model updates and official meteorological warnings will likely drive the most volatile price swings, with traders locking in positions based on the latest deterministic and ensemble forecasts.