Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 16?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and a broader range of information sources. While meteorologists rely on numerical weather models and historical data, this market reflects what traders are willing to stake on specific outcomes, creating a market-driven probability. Analysts may issue point forecasts or confidence intervals, whereas prediction markets express uncertainty through continuous price discovery. Over time, markets that attract diverse, informed participants tend to match or outperform single-source forecasts, though both approaches have distinct strengths in capturing different aspects of forecast uncertainty.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature bracket has its own contract, and the price of a share reflects the implied probability that outcome will occur. When demand for a particular temperature range increases, its price rises; when traders sell, the price falls. This continuous price adjustment ensures the market remains liquid and responsive to new information. Traders profit by correctly predicting which temperature range will verify, incentivizing accurate forecasting and efficient price discovery.

This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul on June 16 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by comparing the final temperature reading against the predefined brackets offered in the market. Resolution occurs after the trading window closes and official data is confirmed, ensuring all participants have access to the same verified information. Once the outcome is determined, winning shares are paid out at full value and losing shares expire worthless, settling all open positions.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before Jun 16, 2026. Updated weather models from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as forecasters refine their predictions. Major atmospheric patterns—such as the arrival of cold fronts, monsoon systems, or heat waves—can cause sharp moves. Real-world temperature data from nearby regions or earlier in June provides traders with calibration signals. Media coverage of seasonal anomalies or climate patterns may also influence trader positioning. As the event date approaches, any official weather alerts or revised forecasts from South Korean meteorological authorities typically drive significant volume and price adjustments.