Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in Seoul on June 12 is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into implied probabilities for each temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes, and the price of each share reflects the market's belief in that outcome's likelihood. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, or climate signals emerge, traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. The current price of each outcome on Polymarket represents the marginal trader's valuation and serves as the live odds for this event.

The Lowest temperature in Seoul on June 12 market resolves on Jun 12, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual minimum temperature recorded in Seoul on June 12, measured according to the official criteria specified in the market's terms. Once the date passes and the official temperature data is confirmed, the market settles to the outcome that matches the recorded low. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process ensures that market prices reflect real-world results.

Several factors could shift odds for Seoul's lowest temperature on June 12. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in the East Asian monsoon, tropical cyclone activity, or high-pressure systems—can alter seasonal temperature expectations. Updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies may reveal cooler or warmer trends. Historical analogues to past June weather in Seoul, combined with broader climate anomalies, influence trader positioning. Additionally, real-time atmospheric data, sea-surface temperatures, and snow cover in nearby regions can signal temperature deviations. As June 12 approaches, short-range forecasts become more precise, typically reducing uncertainty and stabilizing prices.