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Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 7?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 7?

Volume:
$58,480

22°C

 - Polymarket

22°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

22°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,862
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Seoul July 7 temperature market dashboard displays real-time odds and price history for the lowest temperature expected in Seoul on July 7. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, and the dashboard reflects current market sentiment through live pricing. You can monitor 24-hour volume and historical price movements to understand how participant conviction has shifted. This market aggregates thousands of individual trades into a single probability estimate, giving you a snapshot of the collective forecast at any moment.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time information and financial incentives for accuracy. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric models, this market reflects what traders are willing to stake on specific outcomes. Analyst forecasts tend to be more conservative and updated on fixed schedules, whereas market prices adjust continuously as new data emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where professional consensus and market participants agree or diverge on Seoul's expected low temperature.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker system. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature range has its own contract, and the price of each reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring. As more capital flows into a particular range, its price rises and others fall, creating a continuous price discovery mechanism. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how quickly prices respond to new information about Seoul's weather forecast.

This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once July 7 has passed and the lowest temperature in Seoul can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting from established meteorological sources. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature range receive their payout based on the final verified low. Until that point, prices will fluctuate as forecasts update and the event date approaches.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can significantly move prices in this market. Tropical systems, monsoon activity, or unexpected cold fronts affecting East Asia would trigger rapid repricing. As July 7 approaches, daily weather updates and model consensus changes become more influential. Breaking news about climate anomalies or regional weather events will likely drive trading volume and shift the probability distribution across temperature ranges.