Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior and incentivized belief. While meteorologists publish deterministic forecasts based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates distributed knowledge from participants who face financial consequences for accuracy. Comparing the implied probability here to published forecasts from major weather services can reveal where the crowd expects conditions to differ from model consensus. Both sources have value: analysts provide physics-based reasoning, while markets reflect collective conviction and willingness to stake capital on specific outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time odds for each temperature outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, and the platform's pricing algorithm adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity depth. Higher trading volume typically narrows the spread between bid and ask prices, making it easier to enter or exit positions. The market price at any moment reflects the marginal trader's conviction about Seoul's lowest temperature on the specified date.

This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul on July 13 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual meteorological data against the temperature thresholds embedded in the market's outcome categories. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a day after the event concludes, once official measurements are published and confirmed. Traders holding positions in the correct outcome category receive their payout proportionally.

Major weather model updates, tropical storm formation, or shifts in seasonal pressure patterns could significantly move odds in this market. Real-time satellite imagery, upper-atmosphere wind forecasts, and official meteorological alerts from Korean weather authorities often trigger sharp repricing. As July 13 approaches, intraday weather reports and live temperature readings will compress uncertainty and drive final positioning. Geopolitical events affecting air quality or industrial activity in the region could also influence local temperature outcomes, though such factors typically play minor roles compared to atmospheric dynamics.