Lowest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs into a probability estimate, which often diverges from traditional meteorological forecasts or analyst models. While weather services rely on physics-based simulations and historical data, this market reflects real-money incentives for accuracy. Comparing the current odds here to published forecasts from Seoul's meteorological authority can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk relative to official predictions, offering a complementary perspective on July 1 temperature expectations.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome—whether the lowest temperature will be 18°C—reflects the cumulative conviction of all participants. As traders buy or sell shares, the probability shifts, creating a continuous price discovery mechanism that incorporates new information and sentiment changes throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once July 1 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Seoul can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing actual weather data against the specified threshold. Resolution occurs after credible public reporting confirms the day's minimum temperature, allowing the market to settle based on observable, verifiable conditions rather than subjective interpretation.

Updated weather forecasts and seasonal climate patterns are primary drivers of price movement in this market. Major meteorological announcements, shifts in atmospheric conditions, or unusual heat or cold events in East Asia could trigger significant repricing. As July 1 approaches, intraday forecasts become more precise, and traders may adjust positions based on the latest modeling data. Real-time temperature readings on the day itself will ultimately determine whether the threshold is met.