Lowest temperature in Seattle on May 28, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi represent aggregated trader beliefs about Seattle's minimum temperature on May 28, 2026, and often diverge from traditional weather forecasts issued by meteorologists and climate analysts. Markets price in both historical seasonal patterns and real-time atmospheric data, but traders may weight uncertainty or tail risks differently than official forecasts. As the event date approaches, analyst models typically converge with market pricing as new observational data becomes available. Comparing market odds to National Weather Service or other institutional forecasts can reveal where traders see value or disagreement.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Seattle on May 28, 2026 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that specific date and location. The exact threshold or range that determines each outcome is set at market creation and remains fixed throughout the trading period. Once the reference data is published and confirmed, the market settles automatically based on which outcome occurred, and traders receive payouts accordingly.

Several factors could shift market odds for Seattle's minimum temperature on May 28, 2026. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range weather models will influence trader expectations as the date approaches. Major atmospheric patterns, such as shifts in the jet stream or development of high or low pressure systems, typically drive short-term repricing. Historical May temperature data and anomalies in spring warming trends may also prompt traders to adjust positions. As late May nears, medium-range forecasts become more reliable, often triggering significant price movements. Real-time weather developments and any unusual climate events will be continuously reflected in market pricing.