Lowest temperature in Seattle on May 27, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Seattle's lowest temperature on May 27, 2026, while traditional weather forecasts from meteorologists and climate models offer probabilistic guidance based on historical data and atmospheric modeling. Markets often incorporate analyst forecasts but diverge when traders identify new information or model uncertainty. The Kalshi market price represents aggregated trader belief, which may lead or lag official forecasts depending on data releases, seasonal patterns, and confidence in underlying climate models. Direct comparison reveals how market participants weight expert opinion against their own analysis.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Seattle on May 27, 2026 is priced as binary or range-based contracts reflecting discrete temperature thresholds. Each outcome contract trades at a price between 0 and 100 cents, where the implied probability equals the price divided by 100. Traders buy contracts they believe will resolve to yes and sell those they expect to resolve to no. Kalshi's order book matches buyers and sellers in real time, with prices adjusting based on supply and demand. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of all active traders on the platform for this specific Seattle weather event.

The Lowest temperature in Seattle on May 27, 2026 market resolves on May 28, 2026, after the event date has passed and official temperature data becomes available. Resolution is determined by verified historical temperature records for Seattle on May 27, 2026, specifically the minimum temperature recorded during that calendar day. Once the outcome is confirmed, all contracts settle according to their terms, with winning positions paid out and losing positions expiring worthless. The exact resolution criteria and data source are specified in the market's terms at creation.

Several factors could shift odds for Seattle's lowest temperature on May 27, 2026. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range weather models may signal warmer or cooler patterns for late May. Major atmospheric events such as cold fronts, heat domes, or unusual jet stream positioning could alter trader expectations. Historical temperature anomalies and climate indices like El Niño or La Niña influence spring weather in the Pacific Northwest. As May 2026 approaches, medium-range forecasts become more precise, typically causing sharper price movements. Real-time weather developments and any significant climate news will drive trader positioning on Kalshi through the resolution date.