Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jun 22, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than single-model outputs. While meteorologists publish deterministic or probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric models, this market prices uncertainty through continuous trading. Traders incorporate not only official forecasts but also historical patterns, seasonal trends, and emerging data. The market-implied probabilities can sometimes lead or lag analyst consensus, offering an alternative lens on the likelihood of specific temperature outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific temperature ranges or thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects supply and demand; as new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the odds update in real time. Shares are bought and sold fractionally, allowing precise positioning on the lowest temperature expected for that date.

This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Seattle on June 22, 2026 is verified and finalized. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources that document the official temperature reading for that day. Once the event passes and the data is available, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold the actual temperature falls into, determining payouts for holders of winning shares.

Several factors could shift odds significantly: updated seasonal forecasts, atmospheric patterns indicating heat waves or cold snaps, historical temperature anomalies for late June, and real-time weather model runs as the date approaches. Major climate or weather events in the weeks prior could also influence trader expectations. Additionally, any revisions to how Seattle's official temperature is measured or reported might prompt repricing. As June 22 draws closer, intraday weather updates and short-range forecasts typically drive the most volatile price swings.