Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jun 21, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-time consensus from traders actively wagering capital, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on historical climate models and seasonal patterns. This market aggregates dispersed information from many participants, often surfacing early signals that formal meteorological forecasts may lag. By comparing this market's implied probability to published seasonal temperature ranges and long-range weather outlooks, traders can identify where professional consensus and market pricing diverge—a useful signal for spotting mispriced outcomes or validating expert predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract reflects a specific low-temperature threshold, and the price of each share moves based on supply and demand from the trading community. As new information emerges—such as updated seasonal forecasts or historical weather patterns—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to shift and revealing the collective expectation of where Seattle's temperature low will fall on that date.

This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, once June 21, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day in Seattle is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual recorded low temperature on that specific date, confirmed through official meteorological data. Traders holding shares in the outcome range that matches the verified temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless.

Long-range climate forecasts, seasonal pattern updates, and El Niño or La Niña developments can shift expectations for Pacific Northwest temperatures in June. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in jet stream positioning or anomalous high or low pressure systems—often trigger repricing as traders reassess the likelihood of extreme lows. Additionally, historical analogues from prior years and real-time atmospheric data closer to June 2026 will influence trading activity, causing this market to gradually converge toward the actual outcome as the event date draws near.