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Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jun 11, 2026?
kalshi

Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jun 11, 2026?

Volume:
$18,397

51° or above

 - Kalshi

51° or above - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 4:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

51° or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,459
N/A
N/A
$5,875
Settled
Yes
kalshi

49° to 50°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,245
N/A
N/A
$4,121
Settled
No
kalshi

47° to 48°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,940
N/A
N/A
$1,610
Settled
No
kalshi

45° to 46°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$802
N/A
N/A
$743
Settled
No
kalshi

42° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$597
N/A
N/A
$557
Settled
No
kalshi

43° to 44°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$353
N/A
N/A
$348
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

The minimum temperature in Seattle on June 11, 2026, will be recorded by the National Weather Service, with the outcome depending on which temperature range is observed.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma on June 11, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The market divides the temperature range into five distinct bands: 42°F or below, 43-44°F, 45-46°F, 47-48°F, 49-50°F, and 51°F or above. Each temperature range corresponds to a specific market outcome. Official data must be obtained from the NWS Climatological Report accessed via the specified URL, selecting Seattle-Tacoma, WA with Daily Climate Report. While preliminary data from other sources like AccuWeather or Google Weather may provide guidance, only the official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) determines final resolution. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline values.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders pricing in historical June weather data, seasonal patterns, and long-range forecasts. Traditional meteorological analysts typically issue detailed forecasts only 7–14 days before the event, so current market prices incorporate broader uncertainty and longer-term climate signals. As June 11, 2026 approaches, official National Weather Service forecasts will become available and may converge with or diverge from market-implied probabilities. Comparing market odds to emerging analyst predictions helps identify whether traders are overweighting or underweighting specific temperature ranges.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Seattle on June 11, 2026 is priced as a series of binary outcomes, each representing a specific temperature threshold or range. Traders buy or sell shares corresponding to their forecast of which temperature band will occur. The market price of each outcome reflects the collective probability estimate. As new weather models, seasonal data, and real-time atmospheric conditions emerge, prices adjust to reflect updated expectations. Liquidity and trading volume on each outcome determine how quickly prices respond to new information.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Seattle on June 11, 2026, as measured by authoritative weather data sources. The specific temperature reading will be matched against the predefined outcome categories, and the corresponding outcome will be marked correct. All shares in winning outcomes pay out in full, while losing shares expire worthless. Traders should monitor the resolution criteria and data source specifications on Kalshi to understand exactly how the final temperature will be verified and which measurement station or methodology will be used.

Long-range weather models and seasonal climate forecasts will shift as we approach June 2026, potentially moving market odds. El Niño or La Niña patterns, Pacific sea-surface temperatures, and upper-atmosphere jet-stream positioning all influence Pacific Northwest summer weather. Major volcanic eruptions or solar activity changes could alter regional climate signals. As spring 2026 progresses, medium-range forecasts will become more precise, triggering repricing. News of climate anomalies, historical temperature records, or unusual atmospheric patterns in the months leading up to June 11 may also prompt traders to adjust positions. Real-time weather data in early June will drive final price convergence.