Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jul 2, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional weather forecasts issued by meteorological agencies. While analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market incorporates real-time information and trader conviction through price discovery. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts can reveal where the crowd sees additional risk or confidence. Both sources offer value: markets excel at capturing tail risks and shifting sentiment, while institutional forecasts provide rigorous modeling depth.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the current liquidity and disagreement among participants about the lowest temperature. As new information emerges—seasonal patterns, climate data, or real-time weather developments—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. Your position's value fluctuates with these collective trades until the market resolves.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once July 2, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual minimum temperature recorded in Seattle on that date. Your position settles based on which outcome bracket or range the final temperature falls into, as specified by the market's terms. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the day's close, once official data is confirmed.

Several factors could shift trader positioning before resolution. Seasonal climate patterns and long-range weather forecasts updated closer to July 2026 will influence expectations. Major atmospheric events—such as heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual pressure systems—could trigger repricing. Urban development or changes to Seattle's microclimate may also matter. Additionally, historical temperature records for early July and any emerging climate trends will draw trader attention. Real-time forecast updates in the weeks leading up to the event typically drive the most significant price movements.