Lowest temperature in Seattle on Jul 11, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical patterns, this market incorporates real-time information and trader conviction through price discovery. Markets tend to update faster than seasonal outlooks when new data emerges, though both sources converge as the event date nears. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts from the National Weather Service can reveal where traders see asymmetric risk or underappreciated scenarios.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bracket has its own bid-ask spread, and the midpoint price reflects the collective probability assigned by active participants. As new information surfaces—seasonal forecasts, climate patterns, or real-time weather data—traders adjust positions, moving prices to equilibrate supply and demand across all temperature bands.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Seattle on July 11, 2026 is verified and confirmed. The outcome is determined by comparing actual observed conditions against the predefined temperature brackets offered in the market. Resolution occurs after the event date has passed and credible public reporting establishes the final low temperature, allowing the platform to settle all positions accordingly.

Major atmospheric patterns, seasonal climate forecasts, and long-range weather models will influence trader positioning over the coming months. El Niño or La Niña conditions, Arctic oscillation shifts, and updated seasonal outlooks from meteorological agencies can trigger significant repricing. As summer 2026 approaches, weekly and daily forecasts will dominate trading activity, with any unusual heat waves or cold snaps in the Pacific Northwest region potentially accelerating market moves. Real-time atmospheric data and unexpected climate anomalies remain the primary catalysts for volatility.