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Lowest temperature in San Francisco on May 31, 2026?
kalshi

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on May 31, 2026?

Volume:
$2,619

50° to 51°

 - Kalshi

50° to 51° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on May 31, 2026?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

50° to 51°

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$491
0%
N/A
$477
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

52° to 53°

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$831
0%
N/A
$647
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

48° to 49°

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
11¢
N/A
$572
0%
N/A
$342
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

45° or below

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$264
0%
N/A
$264
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

54° or above

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$252
0%
N/A
$252
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

46° to 47°

Trade
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$209
0%
N/A
$203
0d 0h 0m
active
Total markets: 6

Description

The minimum temperature in San Francisco on May 31, 2026, will be recorded according to the National Weather Service's daily climatological data. This event covers the full range of possible temperature outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts and analyst predictions. While weather services issue point estimates and confidence intervals months in advance, prediction markets aggregate real-time trader beliefs and adjust dynamically as new data emerges. Markets may price in tail risks or seasonal anomalies that analysts downweight, or vice versa. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to National Weather Service long-range outlooks or climate models can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk. This comparison helps identify whether market pricing reflects consensus expert opinion or contrarian positioning.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome for San Francisco on May 31 is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As traders place orders, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens based on volume and conviction. Kalshi's order book aggregates all buy and sell interest, allowing you to see real-time depth and execute at the best available price for your chosen temperature outcome.

Several factors can shift market odds for San Francisco's May 31 low temperature. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in the Pacific jet stream, development of high or low pressure systems, or El Niño/La Niña transitions—will influence long-range forecasts and trader positioning. Seasonal climate anomalies, historical temperature records for late May, and any unusual atmospheric circulation patterns can also move prices. As May approaches, updated 10-day and extended forecasts will become more precise, causing rapid repricing. Additionally, any significant climate or weather news affecting California's regional conditions may prompt traders to adjust their bets on the final outcome.