Lowest temperature in San Francisco on May 29, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on climate models and historical data to project May temperatures in San Francisco, prediction markets incorporate broader information including trader expectations and emerging climate patterns. Comparing Kalshi odds to National Weather Service or Climate Prediction Center forecasts can reveal where the market is more bullish or bearish on specific temperature ranges. This comparison helps identify whether traders are pricing in factors that conventional forecasters may underweight.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome for San Francisco on May 29, 2026, is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the probability traders assign to each temperature band. Prices move based on order flow, with higher prices indicating stronger market belief in that outcome. Kalshi's order book shows real-time bid-ask spreads, allowing traders to execute at current market rates or place limit orders. As new weather data emerges or seasonal patterns become clearer, prices adjust to reflect updated expectations about May conditions in San Francisco.

The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after May 29, 2026, concludes. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in San Francisco on that date. The outcome is typically sourced from a recognized meteorological authority to ensure accuracy and prevent disputes. Once the final temperature is confirmed and published, the market settles automatically, and traders' positions are credited or debited based on whether their prediction matched the actual low temperature for that day.

Several factors could shift odds on Kalshi before resolution. Seasonal climate forecasts and El Niño or La Niña patterns influence spring temperatures on the West Coast. Major weather systems, atmospheric blocking patterns, or unexpected cold fronts can trigger sharp repricing weeks or days before May 29. Long-range models from NOAA or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts may show cooler or warmer trends, prompting traders to adjust positions. As May approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, often causing final price movements. Urban heat island effects and local microclimates also factor into trader expectations.