Lowest temperature in San Francisco on May 28, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations about San Francisco's minimum temperature on May 28, 2026, often incorporating meteorological models and historical climate data. Traditional weather analysts and climate services publish seasonal forecasts and daily predictions that may differ from market prices. The prediction market captures real-time consensus from traders betting capital on outcomes, while analyst forecasts rely on computational models and expert judgment. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than professional meteorologists currently project for late May in San Francisco.

On Kalshi, the Lowest temperature in San Francisco on May 28 is priced through a binary contract asking whether the minimum temperature will be below 48 degrees Fahrenheit. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market odds reflect trader conviction about this threshold, with pricing updated continuously as new weather data and forecasts emerge. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price directly represents the implied probability of the outcome. As May 28 approaches, prices typically converge toward either near-zero or near-100 as resolution certainty increases, driven by updated meteorological models and real-time atmospheric conditions.

The Lowest temperature in San Francisco on May 28 market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual minimum temperature recorded in San Francisco on May 28, 2026, measured against the 48-degree threshold specified in the contract. Official temperature data from recognized meteorological sources establishes whether the outcome occurs. Once the calendar date passes and final temperature readings are confirmed, the market settles automatically, paying out traders who correctly predicted whether the low would fall below or remain at or above 48 degrees Fahrenheit.

Several factors could shift odds for this San Francisco temperature market. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range weather models will influence trader expectations as May 2026 approaches. Major atmospheric patterns, such as high-pressure systems or marine layer intensity, directly affect Bay Area minimum temperatures. El Niño or La Niña conditions could signal warmer or cooler late-May weather. Real-time meteorological alerts, anomalous jet-stream positioning, or unusual ocean temperatures near California may prompt repricing. As May 28 draws closer, short-range forecasts become more precise, typically causing sharper price movements as traders adjust positions based on increasingly reliable weather predictions.