Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 7, 2026?

On Kalshi, the Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 7 is priced as binary or range-based contracts reflecting discrete temperature thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to whether the actual low will fall within or outside specified ranges, with prices between 0 and 100 cents representing implied probability. The contract structure allows precise betting on outcomes like below 55°F, 55–60°F, or above 60°F. Kalshi's pricing mechanism aggregates trader demand and supply, moving prices to equilibrate the market as new information and forecasts emerge.

The market resolves on Jun 8, 2026, after the close of trading on June 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official recorded lowest temperature in San Francisco on that date, sourced from authoritative weather data. The specific measurement station and data source used for settlement are defined in the contract terms. Once the day concludes and the final low is confirmed, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold the actual temperature falls into, and traders' positions are paid out accordingly.

Key signals include updated long-range weather forecasts, seasonal climate patterns, ocean temperature anomalies, and atmospheric pressure systems developing over the Pacific. Major weather events such as marine layer intensity, high-altitude ridge positioning, or unusual jet stream behavior can shift trader expectations significantly. As June approaches, medium-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing sharper price moves. Real-time updates from meteorological agencies in the final 48 hours often trigger substantial trading activity. Historical June lows and any anomalous warming or cooling trends in late spring will also influence market pricing.