Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 28, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, uncertainty premiums, and forward-looking sentiment. While meteorologists issue deterministic temperature predictions based on atmospheric models, this market prices the probability of specific outcomes, reflecting both model consensus and market participants' confidence intervals. Traders may assign higher or lower odds than analysts expect if they believe official forecasts underestimate variability or miss emerging weather patterns. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in more or less risk than professional forecasters currently project.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a price between 0 and 100 cents, representing the implied probability that the lowest temperature will fall within that bracket. Traders profit by correctly predicting which range will occur, and the market price adjusts in real time as new orders flow in. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tight the bid-ask spread remains and how quickly prices respond to new information about June 28 weather conditions.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once June 28, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day in San Francisco is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual recorded minimum temperature against the predefined ranges offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome bracket receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution timing depends on when official temperature data becomes available and is confirmed through reliable weather reporting.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move this market. El Niño or La Niña developments, shifts in the Pacific jet stream, and historical temperature records for late June all serve as key signals traders monitor. As June 2026 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and can trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric events—volcanic activity affecting solar radiation, unexpected ocean temperature changes, or extreme heat waves in the broader region—may prompt traders to adjust their positions and shift market odds.