Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 27, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders and often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts. While meteorologists issue probabilistic temperature predictions based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. Analyst forecasts tend to update slowly and rely on established modeling conventions, whereas market prices can react quickly to new data, satellite imagery, or seasonal anomalies. Comparing the implied probability from this market to official National Weather Service or private meteorology firm predictions can reveal where traders see value or disagreement in the scientific consensus.

This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in San Francisco on June 27, 2026 is verified and confirmed. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual minimum temperature to the 51-degree threshold specified in the contract. Traders holding "yes" shares are paid if the low falls below 51°F; "no" holders are paid if it reaches 51°F or higher. Resolution relies on credible public temperature data sources to ensure accuracy and fairness.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Updated seasonal forecasts, El Niño or La Niña patterns, and long-range climate models will influence trader expectations as June 2026 approaches. Major weather systems, atmospheric pressure anomalies, or unusual jet-stream positioning in late June could trigger sharp repricing. Historical temperature records for that date and time-of-year climatology also anchor trader thinking. As the event date draws closer, short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service will become more precise, potentially causing rapid bid-ask adjustments. Real-time conditions on June 27 itself—cloud cover, wind patterns, and overnight cooling rates—represent the final catalyst before settlement.