Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 20, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and risk appetite alongside expert models. While meteorologists publish deterministic or probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric science, this market reflects what participants are willing to stake on specific outcomes. Over time, markets tend to aggregate dispersed information efficiently, but near-term differences can arise if traders weigh recent data, seasonal patterns, or climate anomalies differently than official forecasters do.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to each temperature outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the marginal probability that the lowest temperature will fall within a given range, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and deeper liquidity. As new information arrives—weather model updates, seasonal shifts, or real-time atmospheric conditions—traders adjust their positions, moving prices to reflect evolving expectations.

This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once June 20, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by comparing the recorded low against the temperature thresholds defined in each outcome option. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome band receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Major weather model updates, seasonal climate patterns, and atmospheric anomalies will likely drive significant price swings in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, unexpected cold fronts, or shifts in the Pacific high-pressure system could reshape expectations for June temperatures in San Francisco. Additionally, historical temperature records, long-range forecasts released closer to the event date, and any unusual atmospheric events will prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust odds accordingly.