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Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 15, 2026?
kalshi

Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 15, 2026?

Volume:
$9,413

57° to 58°

 - Kalshi

57° to 58° - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 4:00 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

57° to 58°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,997
N/A
N/A
$2,853
Settled
Yes
kalshi

55° to 56°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,687
N/A
N/A
$1,158
Settled
No
kalshi

59° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,340
N/A
N/A
$1,334
Settled
No
kalshi

53° to 54°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,101
N/A
N/A
$922
Settled
No
kalshi

51° to 52°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,022
N/A
N/A
$542
Settled
No
kalshi

50° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$265
N/A
N/A
$262
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks the lowest temperature recorded in San Francisco on June 15, 2026. The actual minimum temperature will be measured and reported by the National Weather Service at San Francisco Airport, with resolution determined by which temperature range the recorded low falls into.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport on June 15, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed via the NWS Metropolitan Transportation Office website under the Observed Weather tab for San Francisco Airport with Daily Climate Report selected. Temperature ranges are: 50°F or below, 51–52°F, 53–54°F, 55–56°F, 57–58°F, and 59°F or above. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the authoritative final source for temperature determination; preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations and should not be used as the basis for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the San Francisco temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the lowest temperature expected in San Francisco on June 15, 2026. The interface displays current market probabilities across outcome ranges, 24-hour trading volume, and order book depth. Traders use this data to monitor how market sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. The dashboard aggregates all active contracts within this market, allowing participants to compare different temperature bands and identify which outcomes command the most trading interest at any given moment.

Prediction market odds reflect real-time consensus from traders with financial incentives to forecast accurately, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on meteorological models and expert judgment. This market prices in current atmospheric conditions, seasonal patterns, and historical data for the San Francisco Bay Area in mid-June. Analyst forecasts typically update on fixed schedules, while market odds adjust continuously as new information emerges. Both approaches have merit: markets excel at aggregating dispersed information, while meteorologists provide detailed physical reasoning. Comparing the two can reveal where expert opinion diverges from trader expectations.

This market resolves around Jun 16, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in San Francisco on June 15, 2026 is confirmed and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official temperature data from established meteorological stations serving the San Francisco area. Traders holding shares in the outcome range that matches the actual low temperature receive full payout, while all other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the data becomes available, ensuring rapid settlement and eliminating ambiguity about which temperature band prevailed.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric anomalies can significantly move odds in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, unexpected cold fronts, or heat domes affecting the West Coast will influence trader expectations. Updated climate models and long-range forecasts released closer to June 2026 often trigger repricing. Historical temperature records for mid-June in San Francisco also serve as anchors for comparison. Real-time weather alerts, changes in solar activity, or volcanic eruptions affecting atmospheric conditions could all prompt traders to adjust positions. As the event date nears, short-term weather forecasts become increasingly reliable and may cause sharp movements in market prices.