Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 13, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, historical volatility, and broader risk sentiment. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical climate data to estimate June temperatures in San Francisco, this market prices in uncertainty and the collective judgment of participants actively wagering capital. Markets tend to be more dynamic and responsive to emerging information, whereas analyst forecasts follow established methodologies. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than official predictions suggest, offering insight into market-implied confidence levels.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each temperature outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the supply and demand for each outcome share, with the spread between bid and ask representing the market's uncertainty at any moment. As new information arrives—seasonal forecasts, climate patterns, or real-time weather updates—traders adjust their positions, moving prices higher or lower. The platform ensures transparent price discovery by displaying all active orders, allowing participants to trade at the best available rates or post custom orders to capture specific price levels.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once June 13, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual recorded low against the temperature ranges offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end date, once official temperature data is published and confirmed through established meteorological sources.

Several factors could shift prices significantly before resolution. Seasonal climate patterns and long-range weather forecasts released months ahead can reshape expectations about June conditions in San Francisco. Major atmospheric events—such as shifts in ocean temperatures, pressure systems, or unusual jet stream behavior—often trigger repricing. Real-time weather updates closer to June 13 will drive the most dramatic moves, especially if forecasters issue revised predictions. Additionally, historical temperature records and El Niño or La Niña cycles influence trader positioning. As the event date approaches, intraday volatility typically increases as participants react to the latest meteorological data and fine-tune their positions.