Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 11, 2026?

On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in San Francisco on June 11 is priced through binary or range-based contracts that divide possible outcomes into discrete temperature buckets. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the probability traders assign to that temperature range occurring. As new weather data emerges and the event date approaches, prices adjust dynamically based on supply and demand. Traders can buy or sell contracts corresponding to their temperature expectations, with payouts determined by the actual recorded low on June 11.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the lowest temperature for June 11, 2026 in San Francisco has been officially recorded. Resolution depends on the actual minimum temperature reading from the designated weather station or official source specified by Kalshi at market creation. Once the data is confirmed and published, the contract settles to reflect which temperature outcome occurred. Traders holding contracts matching the resolved outcome receive their proportional payout, while those on incorrect outcomes receive nothing.

Several factors can shift odds for San Francisco's June 11 low temperature. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in the Pacific jet stream, development of marine layer conditions, or arrival of high-pressure systems—will influence market pricing. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range weather models released closer to June will trigger repricing. El Niño or La Niña conditions, historical temperature anomalies, and urban heat island effects specific to San Francisco also matter. As June approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing odds to converge toward the most likely outcome.