Lowest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 10, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts from professional weather services. While traditional weather analysts issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on climate models, prediction markets price outcomes based on collective belief and real-money incentives. Comparing Kalshi odds to National Weather Service or private meteorology forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less uncertainty than experts, or whether they anticipate different temperature ranges for San Francisco on June 10, 2026.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome for San Francisco on June 10, 2026 is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader conviction about the final recorded low. Prices move based on new weather model updates, seasonal climate patterns, and real-time trading activity. As the event date approaches, prices typically converge toward the actual forecast range. Traders can buy or sell contracts at current market prices, with payouts determined by the official low temperature recorded on that date.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026, after the close of trading and once the official lowest temperature for San Francisco on June 10, 2026 is recorded. The outcome is determined by the actual minimum temperature observed on that date, typically sourced from official weather station data. Resolution occurs after sufficient time has passed to confirm the final reading and allow for any necessary data verification, ensuring all traders have clarity on the settled outcome.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems tracking toward Northern California can significantly move odds for San Francisco's June 10 low. El Niño or La Niña developments, jet stream positioning, and marine layer intensity forecasts all influence trader expectations. Real-time weather model runs released in the days leading up to June 10 will be the strongest price drivers, as will any unusual heat waves or cold snaps affecting the broader West Coast. Traders monitor National Weather Service updates and long-range climate outlooks continuously.