Lowest temperature in San Antonio on May 28, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations about San Antonio's minimum temperature on May 28, 2026. These market-derived probabilities often differ from traditional meteorological forecasts issued by the National Weather Service or private weather analysts. Markets incorporate real-time information, historical patterns, and trader conviction, sometimes leading to more dynamic adjustments than static seasonal forecasts. Comparing Kalshi odds to published analyst predictions can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios. Both sources offer valuable perspectives, though markets tend to update faster as new data becomes available.

The Lowest temperature in San Antonio on May 28 market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official minimum temperature recorded for San Antonio on May 28, 2026. The contract outcome depends on whether that recorded low falls below or meets/exceeds the 65-degree Fahrenheit threshold specified in the binary contract. Official temperature data sources are used to settle the market, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Once the market resolves, traders' positions are settled based on the actual outcome.

Several factors could shift odds for the Lowest temperature in San Antonio on May 28. Updated long-range weather forecasts from meteorological agencies may indicate stronger or weaker cold-air patterns approaching Texas. Historical climate data and seasonal trends for late May in San Antonio inform baseline expectations. Real-time atmospheric conditions, jet-stream positioning, and tropical or polar systems developing weeks before the event can alter trader sentiment. Major weather model consensus changes often trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, as May 28 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically reducing uncertainty and stabilizing the market price closer to resolution.