Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 6, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate data, and seasonal temperature patterns for San Antonio in early June. Unlike traditional weather analyst models that rely on atmospheric science alone, prediction markets price in real-time information and trader conviction. Comparing Kalshi odds to National Weather Service forecasts or climate databases can reveal whether traders are pricing in higher or lower temperatures than official models suggest, offering insight into market sentiment versus institutional predictions.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader beliefs about San Antonio's minimum temperature on that date. Traders buy and sell shares based on their conviction, with prices moving as new weather data, seasonal forecasts, or climate patterns emerge. The contract price directly represents the market probability of the outcome occurring. Kalshi's order book and continuous trading mechanism allow real-time price discovery, so the current odds reflect the most recent consensus among active participants on this specific weather event.

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026, after the close of trading and once the lowest temperature for San Antonio on June 6, 2026 is officially recorded. Resolution depends on verified temperature data from authoritative weather sources for that specific date and location. Once the actual minimum temperature is confirmed, the contract settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold it falls into, and traders' positions are finalized accordingly. The exact resolution criteria and data source are specified in the market terms on Kalshi.

Key drivers include updated seasonal forecasts, long-range weather models, and atmospheric patterns affecting South Texas in early June. Cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or tropical activity could shift trader expectations significantly. Historical climate data and typical June temperatures in San Antonio provide baseline anchors, but anomalies or climate oscillations may trigger repricing. As June 6, 2026 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and will likely cause sharper odds movements. Real-time weather alerts, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and any unusual meteorological developments will influence how Kalshi traders adjust their positions leading up to resolution.