Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 4, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this weather event is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the lowest temperature expected in San Antonio on June 4, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature thresholds or outcomes. The contract price directly translates to an implied probability: higher prices indicate greater market confidence in warmer overnight lows, while lower prices suggest traders expect cooler conditions. Pricing adjusts dynamically as new weather models, historical analogues, and seasonal data influence trader behavior throughout the market's lifetime.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official recorded lowest temperature in San Antonio on June 4, 2026. This data is typically sourced from National Weather Service stations or other authoritative meteorological records for the San Antonio area. The exact temperature reading on that date settles all contracts, with outcomes mapped to the temperature thresholds or ranges defined in the market contract specifications.

Several factors can shift market odds for San Antonio's June 4 low. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range weather models will influence expectations as the date approaches. Major weather pattern shifts, such as changes in jet stream positioning or tropical activity, can alter overnight temperature prospects. Historical analogues and El Niño or La Niña conditions may also sway trader sentiment. As June 2026 draws nearer, short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service will become more precise, driving final price adjustments. Unusual heat waves or cold fronts in the weeks prior could reset baseline expectations.