Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 29, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical patterns, this market prices in real-time information from thousands of participants with financial stakes in accuracy. Comparing the implied probability of specific temperature ranges in this market against official National Weather Service or private forecaster predictions can reveal where the crowd sees value or risk that conventional models may underweight.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different temperature outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract reflects a specific temperature range, and the price of each contract—expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100—represents the market's collective belief in that outcome's probability. As new weather forecasts or seasonal data emerge, traders adjust their positions, causing prices to fluctuate and revealing shifting consensus on the likely low temperature.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once June 29, 2026 has passed and the actual lowest temperature in San Antonio can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the recorded minimum temperature against the contract ranges offered in the market. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, ensuring all traders have access to the same factual basis for settlement.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can all drive significant price movement in this market. Broader climate events—such as heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual atmospheric conditions affecting the South-Central United States—may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, historical temperature records for late June in San Antonio and real-time model updates closer to the event date will likely trigger repricing as the resolution date approaches and uncertainty narrows.