Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 22, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because markets incorporate a broader set of information and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. While meteorologists rely on numerical models and historical data, this market aggregates the views of many participants who profit only if their temperature predictions prove correct. Comparing the market's implied probabilities to published forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies can reveal where traders see value or disagreement with official guidance.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific temperature ranges or thresholds for the lowest temperature on June 22, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the difference between what buyers and sellers are willing to accept, and prices update continuously as new orders are placed. Traders can enter limit or market orders to express their view, with contract prices ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents depending on perceived probability.

This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, after June 22, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in San Antonio for that day is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verified data from credible public weather sources, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Once the official low temperature is established and reported, the market will settle according to whichever outcome bracket or threshold the actual reading falls into.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can all influence trading activity in this market. Significant atmospheric events such as cold fronts, heat domes, or unusual pressure systems affecting Texas could trigger repricing as traders update their expectations. Additionally, historical temperature records for San Antonio in late June and broader climate trends may prompt traders to adjust positions, causing the market odds to shift as new information becomes available.