Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 21, 2026?

Prediction market odds aggregate the collective judgment of traders with real financial stakes, often differing from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on physics-based models and historical climate data, this market reflects traders' interpretation of those same inputs plus their confidence in model accuracy. Discrepancies typically signal either market skepticism about official forecasts or traders pricing in tail risks that standard models underweight. Comparing the two reveals where consensus breaks down.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific temperature outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Share prices range from $0 to $1, with the sum of all outcome prices equaling $1, ensuring internal consistency. As new information arrives—updated weather forecasts, seasonal anomalies, or climate data—traders adjust their positions, moving prices to reflect the latest probability estimates for the lowest temperature on that date.

This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, once June 21, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in San Antonio that day is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual low temperature to the predefined outcome bands offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome band receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution timing allows for official data confirmation before final settlement.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal climate forecasts, and long-range model consensus changes will drive significant price swings in this market. El Niño or La Niña developments, anomalous jet stream positioning, and historical temperature records for early summer in Texas all influence trader positioning. Additionally, real-time weather alerts closer to June 2026 and any unusual atmospheric conditions reported by meteorologists can trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitor both macro climate trends and micro-scale local forecasts to adjust their bets.