Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 17, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trading by informed participants and often diverge from traditional meteorologist forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical climate data, this market aggregates the financial commitments of traders who believe their temperature predictions will prove correct. Comparing the implied odds here to published forecasts from the National Weather Service or local meteorologists can reveal where market participants see greater or lower probability than official models suggest, offering a complementary perspective on expected conditions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, and the current bid-ask spread reflects the market's uncertainty about the lowest temperature. As new information emerges—seasonal forecasts, atmospheric patterns, or real-time weather updates—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down to reflect changing probabilities.

This market resolves around Jun 18, 2026, once June 17, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day in San Antonio is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual recorded low temperature on that date, confirmed through established meteorological records. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature range at resolution receive their payout based on the final verified data.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Seasonal climate patterns and long-range forecasts released months ahead may adjust baseline expectations. As June 2026 approaches, updated weather models and atmospheric data will refine predictions. Unusual weather events—such as early heat waves, cold fronts, or anomalous pressure systems—can trigger repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for San Antonio on June 17 in prior years may influence trader positioning, as participants benchmark typical conditions against current market prices.