Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 1, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time aggregation of trader beliefs about San Antonio's lowest temperature on June 1, 2026, and typically incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate patterns, and seasonal trends. Analyst forecasts from weather services and climate models provide independent baseline expectations. Market odds often diverge from static analyst predictions because traders continuously update probabilities as new weather data emerges and the event date approaches. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than professional forecasters.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome for San Antonio on June 1, 2026 is priced using binary or range-based contracts that allow traders to buy or sell shares reflecting their confidence in specific temperature thresholds. Prices move between 0 and 100 cents based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating stronger market belief in that outcome. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether the actual low temperature will fall within or outside specified ranges, with final settlement determined by official temperature data on the resolution date.

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026, after the lowest temperature for San Antonio on June 1, 2026 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from recognized meteorological sources, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome. Once the actual minimum temperature is confirmed, the market settles according to which outcome bracket or contract specification the recorded temperature matches, and traders' positions are finalized based on the confirmed result.

Key signals that could shift market odds include updated seasonal weather forecasts, atmospheric pressure systems developing in the region, historical temperature anomalies, and long-range climate models released closer to June 2026. Major weather patterns such as cold fronts, heat domes, or tropical systems affecting Texas could significantly alter expectations. Additionally, broader climate trends, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and real-time meteorological data in late May 2026 will influence trader positioning. As the event date approaches, short-term weather models become increasingly reliable and typically drive the largest price movements.