Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Jul 10, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they reflect real-time trader positioning rather than deterministic models. While meteorologists issue point forecasts and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market prices uncertainty through continuous trading. Traders incorporate analyst guidance, historical patterns, and emerging weather signals into their bids. The market-implied probability can serve as a complementary gauge of tail-risk scenarios or consensus confidence that formal forecasts may not fully capture.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific outcome—for instance, whether the low will fall below a given threshold—and the bid-ask spread reflects the market's uncertainty around that boundary. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, with higher prices indicating stronger trader conviction that an outcome will occur.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once July 10, 2026 has passed and the day's minimum temperature is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the lowest temperature recorded in San Antonio during that calendar day. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the close of the trading day, allowing traders to settle positions based on the confirmed meteorological data.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases will influence trader positioning. Tropical systems, heat domes, or cold fronts approaching Texas can trigger sharp repricing. Long-range climate outlooks and historical temperature anomalies for early July also shape expectations. As the event date approaches, updated short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service and other meteorological agencies become primary drivers. Unexpected shifts in jet-stream patterns or sea-surface temperatures weeks in advance can move odds significantly.