Lowest temperature in Phoenix on May 31, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Phoenix on May 31, 2026 is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new weather data, climate patterns, or seasonal forecasts emerge, contract prices adjust. The most actively traded contracts typically cluster around temperatures most likely given Phoenix's historical May climate and current atmospheric conditions.

The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026, after May 31, 2026 has concluded and the actual lowest temperature in Phoenix is recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from a designated weather station or meteorological authority serving the Phoenix area. Once the final low temperature is confirmed, the contract corresponding to that outcome is settled at 100 cents, and all other contracts settle at zero. This ensures payouts are tied to verifiable, objective weather data.

Several factors could shift odds for Phoenix's May 31 low temperature. Long-range climate forecasts and seasonal outlooks updated by NOAA or other agencies may signal warmer or cooler-than-normal conditions. El Niño or La Niña patterns influence late-spring temperatures across the Southwest. As May 2026 approaches, medium-range weather models become more reliable, potentially triggering sharp repricing. Unusual atmospheric events—such as early heat waves or cold fronts—can also move markets. Traders monitor these signals continuously, adjusting positions as new information arrives.