Lowest temperature in Phoenix on Jun 13, 2026?

Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they reflect different methodologies. Meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical climate data, while traders in this market aggregate real-time information and incentives through price discovery. Analyst forecasts tend to be published weeks or months in advance, whereas market odds update continuously as new weather data emerges. Neither approach is inherently superior; prediction markets excel at capturing shifting probabilities and tail risks, while expert forecasts provide detailed reasoning. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus is strong or where uncertainty remains highest.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a price between 0 and 100 cents, reflecting the implied probability that the lowest temperature will fall within that range. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome or by identifying mispricings relative to their own forecasts. The continuous two-sided market ensures liquidity and allows participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, market-determined prices throughout the trading period.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Phoenix on June 13, 2026 is confirmed and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual recorded temperatures against the predefined outcome brackets offered in the market. Resolution occurs after the event date has passed and official data is available, ensuring all participants have access to the same factual basis for settlement. Early resolution is not possible, as the event must occur before any outcome can be finalized.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Long-range weather forecasts updated by meteorological agencies will influence trader expectations as June 2026 approaches. Climate pattern shifts, such as changes in El Niño or La Niña conditions, can alter seasonal temperature trends for the Southwest. Historical temperature records and anomalies may prompt traders to reassess tail-risk outcomes. Media coverage of extreme weather events or climate reports can also sway sentiment. As the event date draws closer, short-range forecasts become more reliable and typically trigger sharper price movements, reflecting increased confidence in the final outcome.