Lowest temperature in Phoenix on Jun 1, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this weather event is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the lowest temperature recorded in Phoenix on June 1, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature thresholds or outcomes, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. The current market price reflects the collective belief of Kalshi traders about which outcome is most likely. As new weather data, seasonal forecasts, or climate signals emerge, prices adjust dynamically to reflect updated market sentiment.

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Phoenix on June 1, 2026, as reported by the designated weather authority or data source specified in the contract terms. Once the date passes and the actual minimum temperature is confirmed, the market settles according to which outcome bracket or threshold the recorded value falls into, and traders holding the winning shares receive their payout.

Several factors could shift market prices for this event. Updated seasonal climate forecasts, particularly those issued by NOAA or other meteorological agencies, often trigger repricing as traders adjust expectations for June weather patterns. La Niña or El Niño conditions, atmospheric circulation anomalies, and long-range model consensus changes can all influence implied probabilities. Additionally, real-time weather developments in late May, including high-pressure systems or unusual jet-stream positioning, may drive late trading activity as the event date approaches and uncertainty narrows.