Lowest temperature in Philadelphia on Jun 4, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the probability traders assign to specific temperature thresholds. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where each cent represents a 1% implied probability. As traders place bets on whether the low will fall within or outside defined ranges, the price adjusts to balance supply and demand. The contract's value at expiration depends on the actual recorded low temperature for Philadelphia on June 4, 2026, reported by the designated weather station.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after the trading window closes and the actual lowest temperature for Philadelphia on June 4, 2026 is recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from the designated weather monitoring station serving Philadelphia. The recorded low temperature on that date settles all contracts based on whether outcomes fall within or outside the specified ranges. Traders holding positions aligned with the final temperature receive payouts, while misaligned positions expire worthless.

Several factors can shift odds for Philadelphia's June 4 low temperature. Major weather pattern changes, such as shifts in jet stream positioning or the arrival of cold fronts, directly influence trader expectations. Seasonal climate anomalies, including El Niño or La Niña effects, shape longer-term forecasts. Updated meteorological models and extended forecasts released closer to June 4 will refine market pricing. Historical temperature records for early June and recent spring weather trends in the region also inform trader positioning. Real-time atmospheric data and any unusual weather events in the weeks leading up to the date will drive market repricing.